gill1109 wrote:In my symposium debate I will secondly focus on my 64 000 dollar challenge to Joy (and his programming friends). This challenge is to reproduce a standard loophole-free Bell experiment by computer simulation of Joy's model. 64 thousand dollars says he cannot do it.
A sample size of 2000 trials should be enough. The determining criterium (who wins and who loses) should be whether the *success rate* is larger than or smaller than 0.80. Here, "success" means that with setting combination 11, 12, or 21, the two outcomes are equal; with setting combination 22 they are unequal. Otherwise we have "failure". With 2000 trials, I believe that the probability I lose is less than 1 in 10 million. If, however, Christian can indeed reproduce the singlet correlations, the probability he loses is less than 1 in 100 million.
This seems to me quite fair. 64 thousand dollars says that Joy and his friends can't do it. How much do they want to bet?
- Code: Select all
> N <- 2 * 1000; pbinom(0.80*N, N, 0.75, lower.tail = FALSE, log = TRUE) / log(10)
[1] -7.272659
> pbinom(0.80*N, N, 0.85, lower.tail = TRUE, log = TRUE) / log(10)
[1] -8.979237
For the record, I want to make two points clear:
(1) I am definitely not attending the planned symposium in Leiden. It is finished. I am perfectly happy if no one mentions my name or my work at the symposium (if it does take place).
(2) As for the so-called challenge above, all the experimenters are doing is confirming what is predicted by quantum mechanics. If they are observing something that is not predicted by quantum mechanics or going beyond quantum mechanics, then we already have a revolution in physics and then nothing we are discussing here matters. Moreover, what my local model predicts and Fred's Mathematica code varifies is exactly what is predicted by quantum mechanics. Therefore the new "challenge" (or the latest shift in the goalpost) has been met.
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